Tom O'Neil: an upset for Cotillard?

Tom O'Neil, of The Envelope, believes Cotillard could edge out Christie and win Best Actress tonight at the Oscars:

Our Buzzmeter gurus Pete Hammond and Dave Karger are getting nervous, I hear. Really nervous. They're among the vast majority of our pundits (29 out of 32) on the Julie Christie train in the best-actress race now fretting that it might suddenly get derailed when a winner crosses the finish line tonight.

That's because they're hearing more and more of what I've been hearing for the last few weeks too, causing me to jump off and switch to Marion Cotillard in our final Buzzmeter logged earlier this week. When you talk to actual voters, you find out that gads aren't voting with the Christie pack, as widely presumed. Cotillard is ahead in the private count I've been keeping but only narrowly. The few dozen academy members I've polled isn't a scientific sampling, but it's enough to convince me of an upset ahead.

You can read the rest of his analysis (BEWARE: He does treat The Babe Factor as a serious trend) here.