I'll bite - Best Supporting Actress

Dorothy's posted her picks, I may as well post my own! The Best Supporting Actress nominees this year are:

Cate Blanchett, I'm Not There
Ruby Dee, American Gangster
Saoirse Ronan, Atonement
Amy Ryan, Gone Baby Gone
Tilda Swinton, Michael Clayton

Blanchett's got the Globe. Dee's got the SAG. Ryan's got the critics' awards. Swinton's got the BAFTA. Ronan's got the most interesting part in a Best Picture nominee. So, who's the frontrunner?

I'll start off this analysis by saying that I've not seen I'm Not There in its entirety, but I have seen Blanchett's entire performance. The Weinstein Co., after Blanchett didn't sweep up the Oscar precursors as expected, has tried a different strategy to secure a win for her: they've not only sent out screeners containing only her performance, but have have started streaming all of her scenes online for free, here. The Weinsteins realize that many felt that the film itself was alienating and even pretentious. Blanchett doesn't appear until halfway through, so they are trying anything to make sure that her performance will be seen. However, this new strategy might rub people the wrong way. For me, at least, it comes across as being desperate. Add in the fact that Blanchett won three years ago for The Aviator, add in the fact that Blanchett never really picked up any momentum, and consider the uncertainty around this category (it truly could go anywhere), and I'd say her chances aren't as high as people initially anticipated. She could very well take it, but I wouldn't put money on it.

As for her performance...well, it was good, I suppose. Blanchett is one of the best actresses working today, but this performance came across as being gimmicky and a little cheesy. I'm the first person who will tell you that I don't know anything about the life of Bob Dylan, but I only feel confused after watching Blanchett's segment. Does hers, combined with the rest of the film, come together to have one ultimate message? What am I supposed to have gotten from her piece in the film? I was only left confused by her performance and by her entire segment in the film, which would be a non-issue if the performance wasn't so superficial. I feel as though she only skimmed the surface.

Ruby Dee is an interesting case, because, at this point in the game, I'd feel good predicting her for the win even though hers is the nomination I just don't understand. I've said it before and I'll say it again: there is a major difference between being happy for the performer and being happy for the performance. I am thrilled for Dee, but disappointed she got nominated for what is, quite frankly, an uninteresting, throwaway role. Putting the flaws of the film aside, Dee's performance clocks in at about five minutes. Now, ladies like Judi Dench and Beatrice Straight have proven that much can be made of a small role, but Dee doesn't hit that level. It's not as though she turns in a bad performance, but she doesn't own the role, she doesn't make the character her own. After the movie was finished, I wasn't left thinking, "Wow, that Ruby Dee. I can't imagine anyone else playing that role." The reason for that being that I didn't think anything about her when the film was over, as it was an uninspired, uninteresting performance.

The Oscars love the sentimental vote, though. Dee has had an extraordinary career in film, television, and on the stage, and has gone unnoticed by the Academy. Being in a box office smash, starring opposite Denzel Washington in her scenes....well, it was time, I guess. I'd give her a slight edge here.

My favorite Briony in Atonement was Vanessa Redgrave (she gave the film the emotional punch it was lacking), but Saoirse Ronan's Briony is the most complex, challenging character in the film. Ronan handles the role with aplomb. Dorothy calls her a "child-villain," which she is, in some respect. I was reminded of Tracy Flick, from Election, while watching her, but in the end, I don't see her as being as manipulative as Flick, nor do I consider her to be a villain. I think she really, truly believes in what she's doing, not realizing that her misunderstanding, her story-telling is condemning a man to death, a couple to years and years of misery, for a crime he didn't commit. It's a remarkably accomplished performance, especially considering Ronan's youth and inexperience.

A nomination is all Ronan should hope for. It's a well-earned nomination, but she's not my personal pick to win it and I don't think she's got overwhelming support within the Academy. The fact that she is in a Best Picture nominee (which earned 7 nominations total) could play in her favor, but Tilda Swinton is in the same situation -- Michael Clayton earned 7 nominations, including a Best Picture nod -- but has a years of experience and a BAFTA in her corner.

Amy Ryan shocked everyone when she, not Blanchett, started picking up award after award from the critics groups for her turn as a drug-addled, grief-stricken mother in Gone Baby Gone (one of my top 10 films this year...criminally overlooked, I think). As Helene, the mother of missing girl Amanda, Ryan gives one of the best performances -- male or female, leading or supporting -- of the year. She evokes sympathy and compassion, but at the drop of the hat she'll disgust you, she'll shock you, and she'll, ultimately, scare you. It's a very ambiguous performance; you don't really ever know what her intentions are, who she is truly looking out for. She seems unperturbed by the loss of her child when you first see her, high and withholding information during an interrogation, then she is upbeat and carefree, before she is lost and devastated. She believes a very dangerous group of people to be involved, she thinks they are seeking revenge on her for stealing their money, and she leads cops down a bizarre trail. It's clear she's trying to protect someone, but who? Her little girl? Her lover? Herself? Capped off by that final scene in the film, I didn't really know how to feel about Helene, but Ryan's performance is so rounded, so full, that I'm not left unsatisfied by the questions those last three minutes raises.

Ryan took all of the critics awards (LAFCA, NYFCC, BFCA, NBR, among others), but has had some trouble at the larger, national groups. Though not eligible for the BAFTA this year, Ryan couldn't beat Blanchett for the Globe or Dee for the SAG. Can she beat them -- as well as Swinton and Ronan -- for the Oscar? I sure hope so...and I think it will happen.

This is the one performance in this category that I haven't seen, though the film will be arriving within the next week or so via Netflix. Because of this, I don't feel comfortable speaking about her performance yet, but I will say that she is a very well-respected actress, who many feel was overdue for a nomination, and who has lately been picking up a lot of steam. While Atonement has a Best Picture nomination and a Writing nomination, the rest of their nominations are scattered amongst technical categories (which aren't unimportant at all). Michael Clayton has heavy, heavy support in every major category: Best Picture, Best Director (Tony Gilroy), Best Actor (George Clooney), Best Supporting Actor (Tom Wilkinson), Best Original Screenplay (Tony Gilroy). If there's a real "surprise" win, it'll be Swinton.

Final Wrap-Up:

Will Win: Amy Ryan
Should Win: Amy Ryan
Spoiler: Ruby Dee
Dark Horse: Tilda Swinton
Don't Count Out: Cate Blanchett

Final Rankings:

1. Amy Ryan, Gone Baby Gone
2. Ruby Dee, American Gangster
3. Tilda Swinton, Michael Clayton
4. Cate Blanchett, I'm Not There
5. Saoirse Ronan, Atonement

Road to Oscar - Best Supporting Actress

It's Oscar week! We'll be posting Oscar predictions for the top categories (supporting actress, supporting actor, actor, actress, best director, and best picture). Tonight I kick things off with Best Supporting Actress.

This year's nominees are:

-Cate Blanchett, I'm Not There
-Ruby Dee, American Gangster
-Saoirse Ronan, Atonement
-Amy Ryan, Gone Baby Gone
-Tilda Swinton, Michael Clayton

CATE BLANCHETT: Let's get this out of the way first: I adore Cate Blanchett. I worship the ground she walks on, and I believe that, along with Kate Winslet, she's one of the greatest living actresses. Having said that, I don't think Blanchett will win this year. It's rather facile to say this, but the truth is that her win (in this category no less) in 2005 for "The Aviator" is too fresh in the collective Oscar voters' memories. The film (which I haven't seen yet) has been quite polarizing: many people disliked it, may more loved it, but most were perplexed. Personally, Todd Haynes can't do no wrong in my eyes, and I look forward to seeing the film. I hate to underestimate Blanchett, but I just don't think lightning will strike twice...at least this year.

SAOIRSE RONAN: Saoirse Ronan was, quite simply, exceptional in the role of Briony Tallis. She is the galvanizing force in McEwan's story, and, gasp, a child-villain (haven't seen one of those in a while, Oscar). So, we all know Oscar loves little girls who turn in great performances (see Patty Duke, Tatum O'Neal, Anna Paquin, Keisha Castle-Hughes, etc.), fair enough. Saoirse also stars in one of the Best Picture nominees for this year, which means more exposure, and which could translate into more votes. There's also the UK vote. It seems like all the pieces are there...but not so fast. "Atonement" lost a lot of momentum (quite unfortunately), and even the recent BAFTA triumph was met with a whimper. It's also reasonable to think that the UK vote will be split between Ronan and Swinton. Youth can be both shield and sword. Just ask folks who rationalize voting for someone older by thinking that the young one will have plenty of more chances to be awarded later in their career (silly as that is). Finally, Ronan hasn't been as visible throughout the award season as some of the other nominees -- fair or not, voters take note of such things. I'm not totally writing off Ronan. Surprises tend to happen most often in the supporting categories. Anna Paquin's win remains one of my top Oscar moments, but let's remember that Paquin was recognized with a LAFCA for her work in "The Piano." Ronan doesn't have any precursor wins to her name -- but again, I wouldn't count her out.
TILDA SWINTON: Unquestionably a great actress. If you haven't seen "Orlando," please rent it asap (only if you like trippy films, though). Unfortunately, I haven't seen "Michael Clayton" yet (though it's apparently on its way from Netflix as I type this). Her BAFTA triumph seems to have shocked a lot of people and many pundits are now predicting her for the win. I would love to follow suit, but my thought is that Swinton might have peaked too late. I would not be surprised if she took the Oscar on Sunday night, but I wouldn't bet on it.

RUBY DEE: A living legend; a lovely woman, and a solid performance. Let me correct that, a solid five-minute performance. Oscar is no stranger to rewarding short film appearances, it's true (see Judi Dench, Beatrice Straight, etc.), which is why I think Dee has a very strong shot at a win here. The film itself is not strong, but Dee's performance is not forgettable. She does a lot with just a few lines. The nomination was a surprise, and I'm glad Dee's talent was recognized. Reaction to Ms. Dee's nomination has been, for the most part, quite shameful on the part of many people, and that's a real bummer (hey, I totally understand why people would be mad, but attacking the lady is just out of line; if anything, attack the Academy, they're the ones who nominated her, after all). In my humble opinion, lesser performances have been rewarded. Would I vote for Dee? If I were to vote on merit, no (my vote would go to the lady in the next paragraph), but I wouldn't be insulted if Dee won. She has a solid body of work, and I'm used to Oscar trying to right prior wrongs with questionable late-career wins (wassup Alan Arkin? Good to see you). That's just how it is.

AMY RYAN: Ryan is incredible in "Gone Baby Gone" (an underrated gem of a film). She swept virtually every critic award of consequence, but unfortunately lost steam with Globe and SAG losses (she wasn't eligible for the BAFTA, maybe next year!). Ryan, a stage actress, had her hand fulls with Helene McCready. She plays an unlikeable character who makes questionable choices and who doesn't seem to learn much from life's vicissitudes. And yet, Ryan rises up to the challenge and elevates what could have been a stock caricature with three-dimensional emotions and feelings. Her Helene is funny, unnerving, dumb, street smart, angry, isolated. But what I most admired of Ryan's performance was her unwillingness to make the audience like her character. She doesn't pander but rather pushes and pushes until we can barely take it anymore. It's a courageous performance that deserves to be rewarded. I predict that, if GBG was seen by enough people, Ryan will win the Oscar she so rightfully deserves.

Predictions:

Winner: Amy Ryan
Spoiler: Ruby Dee
Dark Horse: Tilda Swinton

Tomorrow I'll write about Best Supporting Actor.

Marion wins big @ Satellite Awards

Marion beat out Julie Christie (Away from Her), Keira Knightley (Atonement), Angelina Jolie (A Mighty Heart), Laura Linney (The Savages), and Tilda Swinton (Stephanie Daley) to pick up the Best Motion Picture Actress (Drama) prize at the 2007 Golden Satellite Awards yesterday. La Vie en Rose was up for six other awards, including Best Foreign Language Film, Best Director (Olivier Dahan), and Best Supporting Actress (Emmanuelle Seigner).

Ellen Page won for Best Actress (Comedy) for Juno, Viggo Mortenson won the Best Actor (Drama) award for his performance in Eastern Promises, and Ryan Gosling won the Best Actor (Comedy) award for Lars and the Real Girl. Casey Affleck (The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford) and Tom Wilkinson (Michael Clayton) tied for Best Supporting Actor, while Amy Ryan picked up yet another Best Supporting Actress win for her work in Gone Baby Gone.

No Country For Old Men and Juno took home the two Best Picture prizes, while Sicko won for documentary, Lust, Caution won for foreign language, and Ratatouille won the animated feature award.

See the full list of winners here. Image from GettyImages.