Sunday, February 24, 2008

Tom O'Neil: an upset for Cotillard?



Tom O'Neil, of The Envelope, believes Cotillard could edge out Christie and win Best Actress tonight at the Oscars:

Our Buzzmeter gurus Pete Hammond and Dave Karger are getting nervous, I hear. Really nervous. They're among the vast majority of our pundits (29 out of 32) on the Julie Christie train in the best-actress race now fretting that it might suddenly get derailed when a winner crosses the finish line tonight.

That's because they're hearing more and more of what I've been hearing for the last few weeks too, causing me to jump off and switch to Marion Cotillard in our final Buzzmeter logged earlier this week. When you talk to actual voters, you find out that gads aren't voting with the Christie pack, as widely presumed. Cotillard is ahead in the private count I've been keeping but only narrowly. The few dozen academy members I've polled isn't a scientific sampling, but it's enough to convince me of an upset ahead.

You can read the rest of his analysis (BEWARE: He does treat The Babe Factor as a serious trend) here.

12 comments:

Amely said...

No way !!! that's awesome!!

When does the ceremony begin? And best actress is award at the end?

Dorothy Porker said...

No, no, no! This could be the kiss of death!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Tom O'Neil is notoriously bad at predicting. HOWEVER, he never paid attention to Marion this whole awards season until now, which might be due to the fact that he's really hearing a different story from voters. Let's hope that's true for Marion's sake.

Amely said...

Oooooops, I never heard about him before so ...

k said...

I'm positive about it, Dorothy. He's been VERY dismissive about Cotillard's chances all season, believing Christie to be the definite favorite, but clearly he's been hearing a different story from a whole lot of voters.

Anonymous said...

The ceremony begins at 8 p.m. US eastern time zone on ABC.
I am really nervous with all these predictions, I don't want to jinx it.
It will be great if she wins, but it will not make me love her any less if she doesn't.

amely said...

on french tv news they showed video from marion arrival in LA. She had to hide from the paparazzi (she had a hat, and was also hiding once in her car), a shame to see how she was .
For the French: best actress award at exactly 4.15

Anonymous said...

Hi, I live in Paris and i wanted to know if the award for Best Actress was really presented that early (4:15) I thought it was usually presented towards the end of the telecast which I've heard ends at 6 here in France..
anyone know?
Thank you..

poppy said...

Well you know the Paps and news reporters were always going to go a bit bonkers this week, she just has to hang on in there for a bit. It will be over tomorrow if she doesn't win, and if she does in around 3 days.

I think the Best Actress will be given out at around 5 am French time. I ain't staying up, I'll watch the beginning and then watch the highlights tomorrow evening

Anonymous said...

Ben Ryan from Eonline predicts that Marion will take the top spot for the Oscar.

Anonymous said...

Oh, sorry it's Ben Lyons

amely said...

video on cnn
"Oscar hopeful Marion Cotillard" :
http://edition.cnn.com/video/#/video/showbiz/2008/02/22/anderson.oscar.cotilard.cnn

Anonymous said...

GOOD LUCK MARION!!! FROM ARGENTINA!