Friday, January 18, 2008

Just for Fun...

As you know, the Oscar nominations will be announced this upcoming Tuesday morning (at 8:30 AM EST). I'm a bit obsessed with Oscar history (as you've probably surmised), and every year I come up with predictions. So why not share 'em with you? I'm generally pretty accurate -- though I am better with predicting winners than nominees, to be honest. In any case, here they are -- let me know what you think!

Best Motion Picture of the Year
Into the Wild
Juno
Michael Clayton
No Country for Old Men
There Will Be Blood

Alt. Atonement
Comment: I really want "Atonement" to make it to the final five, but it has been snubbed by so many guilds, that I've grown weary. If it does make it to the end, I think it'll bump off "Into the Wild," which is one of my favorite films of the year. In an ideal world, "Michael Clayton" would be out and "Atonement" in.


Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role

George Clooney, Michael Clayton
Daniel Day-Lewis, There Will Be Blood
Johnny Depp, Sweeney Todd
Emile Hirsch, Into the Wild
Viggo Mortensen, Eastern Promises

Alt. James McAvoy, Atonement or Ryan Gosling, Lars and the Real Girl
Comment: The most vulnerable person here is Viggo, who was fantastic in "Eastern Promises." If Gosling makes it, expect Viggo (or Hirsch, because of the young male vote going to Gosling) to be kicked off the list. Regarding McAvoy, if "Atonement" makes a showing for Picture and Director, expect to see him nominated (and probably Keira as well).


Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role
Cate Blanchett, Elizabeth: The Golden Age
Julie Christie, Away from Her
Marion Cotillard, La Vie En Rose
Angelina Jolie, A Mighty Heart
Ellen Page, Juno

Alt. Laura Linney, The Savages or Amy Adams, Enchanted
Comment: The lack of critical (or SAG) love for Linney or Adams has been fatal. I'm very comfortable with my picks in this category and don't expect any upsets.


Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role
Casey Affleck, The Assassination of Jesse James
Javier Bardem, No Country for Old Men
Paul Dano, There Will Be Blood
Hal Holbrook, Into The Wild
Tom Wilkinson Michael Clayton

Alt. Tommy Lee Jones, No Country for Old Men
Comment: I'm taking a bit of a risk here with Dano, especially because he did not receive a SAG nod. However, the recent surge of "There Will Be Blood" should carry him directly toward the final five. The fact that he gives an exceptional performance also helps. If anyone should kick him off, it's previous winner Jones, who gives one of his best performances to date in "No Country."


Best Performance by Actress in a Supporting Role
Cate Blanchett, I'm Not There
Catherine Keener, Into the Wild
Saoirse Ronan, Atonement
Amy Ryan, Gone Baby Gone
Tilda Swinton, Michael Clayton

Alt. Ruby Dee, American Gangster
Comment: I feel very good about this category as well. The only one on shaky ground is Ronan (my personal pick), mainly because of the lack of a SAG nod. Dee is a legend and gives a solid, albeit too short performance (but who cares about that, says Ms. Dench). Personally, I would honor Dee with an honorary Oscar, and not for this particular performance, which is just not as strong as the ladies in my list.


Best Achievement in Directing
P.T. Anderson, There Will Be Blood
Coen Brothers, No Country for Old Men
Sidney Lumet, Before the Devil Knows You're Dead
Sean Penn, Into the Wild
Julian Schnabel, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly

Alt. Joe Wright, Atonement
Comment: I'd love to see Wright recognized for his towering achievement, but the cards just don't seem to be there. Schnabel has been collecting various kudos as of late, which is fantastic. I haven't seen "Diving Bell" yet, but I've respected his prior films -- especially "Before Night Falls." My gutsy pick here is Lumet -- another legend who might just sneak in and even take the big boy home. Risky, but whatever, this isn't science.


Here are the rest:

Best Writing, Original Screenplay
Eastern Promises - Steve Knight
I'm Not There - Todd Haynes, Oren Moverman
Juno - Diablo Cody
Michael Clayton - Tony Gilroy
The Savages - Tamara Jenkins

Best Writing, Adapted Screenplay
Atonement - Christopher Hampton
The Diving Bell and the Butterfly - Ronald Harwood
Into the Wild - Sean Penn
No Country for Old Men - Joel & Ethan Coen
There Will Be Blood - Paul Thomas Anderson

Best Achievement in Cinematography
Roger Deakins, No Country For Old Men
Roger Deakins, The Assassination of Jesse James
Robert Elswit, There Will Be Blood
Janusz Kaminski, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Seamus McGarvey, Atonement

Best Achievement in Art Direction
Atonement
Elizabeth: The Golden Age
The Golden Compass
Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street
There Will Be Blood

Best Achievement in Costume Design
Atonement
Elizabeth: The Golden Age
The Golden Compass
La Vie en Rose
Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street

Best Achievement in Sound Mixing
The Bourne Ultimatum
Hairspray
La Vie en Rose
Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street
There Will Be Blood

Best Achievement in Editing
Jay Cassidy, Into The Wild
John Gilroy, Michael Clayton
Joel & Ethan Coen, No Country For Old Men
Chris Lebenzon, Sweeney Todd
Tatiana S. Riegel & Dylan Tichenor, There Will Be Blood

Best Achievement in Sound Editing
The Bourne Ultimatum
No Country for Old Men
Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End
Ratatouille
Transformers

Best Achievement in Visual Effects
The Golden Compass
Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End
Transformers

Best Achievement in Makeup
La Vie en Rose
Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix
Sweeney Todd The Demon Barber of Fleet Street

Best Achievement in Music Written for Motion Pictures, Original Song
“If You Want Me” from “Once”
"That's How You Know" from “Enchanted”
"Come So Far (Got So Far To Go)" from “Hairspray”
"Guaranteed" from “Into the Wild”
"Falling Slowly" from “Once “

Best Achievement in Music Written for Motion Pictures, Original Score
Atonement
Eastern Promises
The Kite Runner
Ratatouille
The Assassination of Jesse James...

Best Documentary, Features
Autism: The Musical
Body of War
Lake of Fire
No End in Sight
Sicko

Best Foreign Language Film of the Year
Austria - "The Counterfeiters"
Brazil - "The Year My Parents Went on Vacation"
Israel - "Beaufort"
Italy - "The Unknown Woman"
Russia - "12"

Best Animated Feature Film of the Year
Persepolis
Ratatouille
The Simpsons Movie

K, you're up! :)

2 comments:

Amy said...

Hey!

I thought your predictions were really awesome! You did pretty good... except maybe on the Foreign Film nods, but I was quite surprised for that too.

I'm also quite obsessed with Oscar, ha! so maybe we should talk on msn or something~ I love a good Oscar discussion~~ x'D PLUS - if (or when) Marion wins, we can both do the victory dance! hahaha (you can email me through my website)

Dorothy Porker said...

Thanks, Amy! I'm kinda proud about most of the predictions, especially the acting ones.

Believe me, there will be a lot of cyber-dancing when Marion wins :-) It won't be pretty.